Bitcoin Hits $100,000 Again — Still Prefer Upside Call Spreads｜Matrixport Research
Our April 11, 2025, report flagged a bullish regime change if Bitcoin breached $85,450. With Bitcoin approaching $100,000, that signal has delivered a +19% gain. The follow‑up “Matrix on Target” report from April 18 highlighted altcoin underperformance but also noted that Bitcoin reached a historic inflection in the Global Money Supply metric — a level that, in past cycles, presaged strong rallies. While this indicator remains debated, its prior track record and Bitcoin’s retest of $100,000 underscore its relevance.
By April 25, Bitcoin had climbed back above our 21‑week moving average of $87,199 — our primary bull‑market threshold. As detailed in our report, this break justified buying upside calls, especially once Bitcoin cleared the $87,045 Fibonacci resistance and ETF inflows accelerated. These coordinated signals — moving‑average confirmation, Fibonacci breach, and rising ETF flows — have proven a robust tactical framework for capturing Bitcoin’s upside while managing risk.
Global monetary policy has dramatically reshaped capital flows into digital assets over the past eighteen months. With interest rates elevated, traditional investors have re-evaluated risk allocations, and the Federal Reserve’s communications have become pivotal. The December 7, 2024, release of the November FOMC minutes dashed market expectations for four rate cuts in 2025, paring those projections back to just two.
On-chain metrics reveal the extent of the market bifurcation. Bitcoin dominance — measured by its share of the total crypto market capitalization — rose from 49% at the start of the ETF era to 64.5% today, a level not seen since the 2021 DeFi summer. This trend has generated the highest risk-adjusted of any primary metric in digital assets, reflecting a flight-to-quality dynamic.
Retail sentiment has been muted, with trading volumes at multi-year lows for both centralized exchanges and DeFi protocols. Retail remains on the sidelines without a strong narrative — no new DeFi killer app, Layer-2 breakthrough, or viral memecoin frenzy.
The summer months typically exacerbate this effect, as vacation seasons in the Northern Hemisphere sap trading activity. Social media engagement around altcoin projects has waned by over 40% since December 2024, while Bitcoin-related chatter remains elevated, reflecting sustained interest in its macro-hedge story.
Absent a major catalyst, sentiment-driven rallies in altcoins are unlikely to materialize.
Given the alignment of technical, macro, and structural headwinds against altcoins, the clear tactical posture is to maintain a long bias in Bitcoin via spot or perpetual futures and use altcoin perpetual futures as hedges. Funding rates on altcoin perpetual contracts remain muted.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
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