Bitcoin Rally: Time to Buy Calls?｜Matrixport Research

Bitcoin is now trading at $93,653 and has broken above its 21-week moving average — our preferred, yet straightforward, indicator for distinguishing between bull and bear markets.

Markets may look past the immediate tariff uncertainty. While a return to complete normalcy is unlikely — with tariffs still in place, companies likely to delay capital expenditures, and consumers remaining cautious — a modest repricing higher in U.S. equities seems plausible. This would, in turn, provide support for other risk assets, including Bitcoin.

With Bitcoin reclaiming its 21-week moving average — coinciding with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,045 — traders have reason to take a more constructive view. This level now serves as a logical stop-loss for long positions. While the summer months are typically associated with sideways consolidation, the probability of further upside remains, especially as the recent gold rally strengthens the broader macro case for owning Bitcoin.

While we still anticipate a prolonged consolidation in Bitcoin, shifting macro dynamics — particularly a potential peak in the U.S. dollar cycle — could provide meaningful tailwinds. This trend already supports gold and may benefit Bitcoin as global holders of U.S. dollar assets continue diversifying away from the currency, a process that could extend over several years.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETF inflows may be on the verge of accelerating. This could become one of the most critical indicators to watch, especially if inflows rise sooner than expected, which would challenge our assumption that they would remain muted until Fed Chair Powell adopts a more dovish stance. While this shift has not yet materialized, it’s a key metric for traders to monitor closely.

With Bitcoin now back at the upper end of its $73,000 to $94,000 range, traders might explore “stock replacement” strategies. This involves taking profits on existing Bitcoin positions and shifting to a more neutral stance by allocating, for example, 5% of capital toward purchasing 110% strike calls (10% out-of-the-money). If Bitcoin pulls back, the maximum loss is limited to the 5% premium. But if the rally continues, traders retain upside exposure with limited downside risk — an efficient way to stay positioned in a less specific environment.

Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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