Bitcoin Traders Have Yet to Position for a Trump Victory | Matrixport Research

As implied volatility remains low, Bitcoin traders still need to position for a potential bullish catalyst tied to a Trump election victory. With Bitcoin options expiring on November 8, 2024, showing no extreme positioning, traders appear cautious about the election outcome. However, strikes at $65,000 and $70,000 indicate some anticipation of a possible rally.

The Bitcoin options market, with trading volumes between $42 billion and $71 billion this year, is becoming a preferred tool for leverage over traditional methods like mining stocks, which have underperformed since the April 2024 halving. MicroStrategy has emerged as an alternative for Bitcoin exposure, though its stock currently trades at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings.

While Bitcoin rallied earlier in the year amid favorable macro conditions, it has since pulled back, with market structure weakening and liquidity drivers faltering. A Trump victory could initially boost Bitcoin but may face headwinds if the Federal Reserve adopts a tighter monetary stance in response to economic overstimulation under his policies. Traders looking to capitalize on potential short-term gains might consider using call spreads to manage risk and capture upside in the lead-up to the election.

Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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