BTC May Enter a Bullish Phase｜Matrixport Research
Global markets experienced significant turbulence at the start of the year, influenced by strong non-farm payroll data and news that the U.S. Department of Justice has been authorized to liquidate BTC seized in the Silk Road case. Amid inflationary pressures, rate cut expectations, and geopolitical volatility, a lower-than-expected CPI print has provided a temporary boost to market sentiment. As Trump assumes office and earnings season gains momentum, the direction of monetary and fiscal policies will become a critical focus.
BTC prices have risen in tandem with multiple catalysts. Looking forward, if BTC surpasses $103,000, it may enter a structurally bullish phase. However, maintaining caution amid FOMO, balancing risk, and carefully evaluating tactical entry points and dynamic asset allocation will be key strategies for navigating 2025.
CPI Falls Short of Expectations, Multiple Catalysts Drive Crypto Asset Rally
On January 15, the U.S. CPI data was released. Core CPI for December came in at 3.2% YoY, below both the forecast and the previous value of 3.3%, marking its lowest level since August 2024. Headline CPI was reported at 2.9% YoY, aligning with market expectations. The cooling of core CPI alleviated concerns about worsening inflation in the U.S., triggering a rapid global market rebound. BTC surged 4% following the announcement, stabilizing near the $10,000 level.
BTC spot ETFs also reversed their downward trend. After four consecutive days of net outflows, net inflows resumed on January 15, totaling $755 million. On January 16, another $626 million flowed in, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) contributing $528 million, the largest single-day inflow.
Meanwhile, U.S. initial jobless claims rose, but layoffs remained subdued, indicating a resilient and healthy labor market. The U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase of 14,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims to 217,000 for the week ending January 11, exceeding market expectations of 210,000. Against a backdrop of moderated inflation and robust employment, the market anticipates two rate cuts this year.
Trump’s Inauguration Likely to Spur Implied Volatility
Trump’s upcoming inauguration on January 20 is another highly anticipated catalyst. The Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance has raised hopes of market support. This position could partially offset the negative impact of high inflation and lend support to BTC prices. Market sentiment is broadly optimistic, as evidenced by a recent survey conducted by Citigroup targeting TradFi clients. The majority of respondents expect BTC to trade higher by 2025, with year-end price projections ranging between $100,000 and $200,000.
Should BTC prices break past the $103,000 level, it could signal the onset of a structurally bullish phase. Even if momentum weakens, BTC is expected to display relative resilience as strategic investors shift from altcoins to what they perceive as safer, higher-confidence trades — namely BTC.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
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