Could Bitcoin Quietly Explode into June?｜Matrixport Research
Bitcoin has surged back to the upper end of its range at $106,000, and with multiple positive catalysts on the horizon, a new all-time high may be within reach. Several downside risks have temporarily faded, providing a more straightforward path for further gains. A reset in earnings expectations triggered the initial wave of the U.S. technology sell-off, but this pressure eased with the release of Q1 2025 earnings in April. Additionally, concerns over reduced spending on data centers for AI initiatives were dispelled as major tech companies reaffirmed their commitment to the AI theme. These reassurances have bolstered investor confidence, increasing share prices and restoring market optimism.
Trump has shifted his focus to announcing inbound investments and deals, bolstering positive sentiment for the stock market and Bitcoin. We turned bullish in mid-April, ahead of the earnings announcements and the resumption of stock buybacks, further driving stock prices. Our technical trend model signaled this shift as the downtrend reversed into a bullish uptrend.
Additional positive developments, such as extending Trump-era tax cuts and potential deregulation efforts, could further fuel growth expectations. This may lead to a repricing of growth prospects and a recalibration of bond yields.
Risk assets, particularly Bitcoin, could benefit from a favorable window until July. This period aligns with the end of the 90-day tariff truce, the start of the Q2 earnings season, and the anticipated peak of our liquidity measure. While this metric is not flawless, the widespread belief in its accuracy can create a self-fulfilling prophecy. As more companies allocate Bitcoin to their treasuries, this could trigger a squeeze higher in Bitcoin prices. However, this momentum may taper off as the typical summer lull in the markets takes hold.
Another significant catalyst is the upcoming FTX payouts for creditor accounts exceeding $50,000, set to begin around May 30, 2025. This round of distributions could total $5 billion in stablecoins, with a substantial portion likely to be redeployed into the cryptocurrency markets. This influx could boost momentum in June, complementing the strong liquidity inflows from Bitcoin ETFs and ongoing stablecoin activity.
Our February thesis suggested a coordinated interest in maintaining high Bitcoin prices, driven by the potential listing of $100 billion worth of cryptocurrency initial public offerings (IPOs). The recent inclusion of Coinbase in the S&P 500 further underscores the growing interest in listing and adding crypto firms to major equity benchmarks.
Given this backdrop, we have maintained a constructive outlook since mid-April, when Bitcoin broke the $84,500 technical level. Despite a $20,000 rally — equivalent to a 25% gain — we believe Bitcoin could continue climbing into the summer.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
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