Is a Bitcoin Breakout on the Horizon for Q4? | Matrixport Research

Matrixport
3 min readSep 27, 2024

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October has arrived, the October to December period is historically a seasonally bullish time for markets. This could signal the end of the six-month consolidation phase. Bitcoin may be poised for a year-end rally that could catch many market participants by surprise.

Despite Bitcoin’s consolidation since reaching a new all-time high in March 2024, its year-to-date return of +49% aligns closely with historical patterns, which projected a return of +47%. Based on Bitcoin’s performance over the past decade, if this historical trend continues to hold, we could be on the verge of a significant price surge beginning in October.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 bp to against potential weakness in the labor market

The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates by 50 basis points. Chairman Powell reassured financial markets that the decision was rooted in the Fed’s confidence that inflation would return to its 2% target. The rate cut was also a preventive measure to safeguard against potential weakness in the labor market. Powell emphasized the strength of the U.S. economy, and his relatively hawkish comments helped calm investor concerns. This move has sustained the market momentum despite uncertainties surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

The year 2025 could mark a turning point for Bitcoin as cryptocurrencies approach the threshold where previous technologies stood on the verge of mass adoption — a topic we’ll explore in detail in next week’s report. The coming weeks and months promise to be an exciting and transformative period for everyone involved in this space.

Historical data shows that crypto assets have performed strongly at the end of the year

Historically, the period from October to March has delivered significantly stronger returns, with an average gain of +40% over the past decade, compared to +27% from April to September. This pattern held during the 2023 and 2024 cycles as well. October is the strongest month, averaging +20% in returns and posting gains in eight of the past ten years.

Ethereum gas fees showing a modest rebound could signal the end of the crypto market’s summer consolidation phase

Ethereum gas fees showing a modest rebound could signal the end of the crypto market’s summer consolidation phase. A closer and more diligent analysis of revenue and gas fee trends will be vital in determining whether this momentum continues. Monitoring these metrics closely will offer deeper insights into whether the recent uptick reflects sustained growth or a temporary spike, potentially marking the start of renewed market activity.

Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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