Key Dates That Could Shape Bitcoin’s Year-End Trajectory| Matrixport Research

Summer is often a challenging trading period for Bitcoin, typically followed by a more promising rally in Q4. In preparation for potential catalysts in the coming months, we’ve compiled a list of critical events that could impact Bitcoin prices through the year-end. While not exhaustive, this list offers a solid roadmap for what’s ahead. We suggest investors mark these events on their trading calendars.

On average, Bitcoin has rallied by over 227% in the past decade, with gains of around 56% by summer and the strongest surge typically occurring in Q4. Last year, we followed this pattern as Bitcoin experienced a significant spike toward year-end, beginning with a rally in late September.

U.S. inflation has declined to 2.9%, dropping significantly below the key psychological level of 3.0%. This decrease is paving the way for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates at its upcoming September 18, 2024 meeting. If implemented, it would mark the first rate cut since the Fed paused its rate hikes in July 2023, making this one of the longest periods of ‘wait-and-see’ in recent monetary policy history.

While monetary policy had become increasingly restrictive due to expectations of Fed rate hikes and the commencement of quantitative tightening in November 2023, which coincided with Bitcoin’s peak during the last bull market, the policy stance is now shifting from a headwind to a tailwind for the economy.

Former President Trump was leading in the polls until President Biden stepped down on July 21, 2024, and was succeeded by Kamala Harris, who now appears to have a more substantial chance of winning the November 5, 2024 election. The last mini-Bitcoin rally in early July followed the Biden-Trump debate. Trump appeared likely to win the November election, notably after he dubbed himself the “Crypto President.”

Additionally, the crypto market faces potential overhangs from Genesis’s ongoing restructuring, which could lead to a payout of $4 billion in crypto to creditors over the next few months and the impending $12.7 billion payout to FTX creditors, expected to begin in December 2024.

Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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