Our Bullish Bitcoin Prediction Is Coming True — But What Could Derail It?｜Matrixport Research

In the last day, Bitcoin broke above $110,000. We hope readers have the chance to capitalize on this rally, despite the broader uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions and tariff-related headlines.

Many traders are missing out on the current Bitcoin rally, as traditional retail engagement indicators remain surprisingly muted, despite prices reaching new all-time highs. This rally is unfolding largely without retail participation. Instead of the usual buzz and euphoria, there’s a noticeable absence of retail momentum. Funding rates remain subdued, retail trading activity is minimal, and altcoins continue to lag.

Moreover, we see traders make costly mistakes during sudden corrections. The mistake isn’t occasionally closing positions during sharp drawdowns — sometimes, that’s a reasonable decision. The fundamental mistake is failing to anticipate those corrections in the first place and then ignoring the analysis that signals they’re coming.

Unlike previous bull markets, retail’s share of Bitcoin ownership is no longer expanding. Contrary to the popular belief that Bitcoin is still in its early stages of onboarding billions of new users, a handful of whale-sized wallets are absorbing the majority of the available supply.

Understanding how corporate demand influences price behavior and how long this trend is likely to continue becomes critical as this shift accelerates. Monitoring on-chain data and wallet activity will be crucial for tracking this evolving power dynamic and identifying key price levels at which large holders are willing to transact.

Realizing that retail traders are largely absent this cycle helps explain why funding rates and trading volumes remain relatively subdued. We’re witnessing a steady and quiet transfer of Bitcoin from early adopters and investors, miners, and exchanges to a new class of investors, primarily corporations, with MicroStrategy leading the charge. This shift also highlights why demand for upside call options has stayed low, along with implied volatility.

The current rally is driven by spot market accumulation rather than speculative derivatives activity, reflecting long-term positioning rather than short-term trading hype.

Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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