Watching: Booking Gains While the Market Pauses｜Matrixport Research

Financial markets are bracing for a historic repricing of global bond yields and the U.S. dollar, a key factor behind Bitcoin’s recent surge to $112,000. While Asian officials deny any coordinated effort to strengthen their currencies in response to America’s trade deficit, attributing the moves to life insurers and exporters hedging their large U.S. dollar exposures, the trend remains intact. As Asian currencies continue to appreciate, the economic implications are becoming clearer: this shift will likely weigh heavily on regional growth in the months ahead.

It’s true that, much like the equity rebound in mid-April, Bitcoin’s rally was initially linked to Trump’s tariff flip-flops. But while his threats now seem largely symbolic, Bitcoin’s surge appears increasingly driven by deepening macro concerns across Asia. A key inflection point occurred when U.S. corporate buybacks resumed after the earnings season, sparking a jump in the Coinbase premium compared to other exchanges, signaling renewed bullishness from U.S. investors as Bitcoin crossed above $87,000.

Although MicroStrategy acquired $4 billion worth of Bitcoin over the past month, the real breakout didn’t begin until after May 7, following two weeks of consolidation. The underlying driver may be far more significant: markets appear to be moving toward a broader economic endgame, with Bitcoin increasingly taking center stage. Rather than MicroStrategy leading the charge with its Bitcoin purchases, it may be a new, less visible player fueling this rally. Identifying who that is, and how much firepower they bring, could be the key to understanding where Bitcoin goes next.

Consumer confidence in Japan is falling sharply, and the Bank of Japan recently slashed its economic growth forecast from 1.1% to just 0.5% at its May 1 meeting. Weak demand in government bond auctions has accelerated a shift into Bitcoin, with Japanese retail investors increasingly leading the charge.

Since the BOJ’s announcement, Japan’s crypto proxy stock, Metaplanet, has surged by 190%, now trading at a $4.8 billion market cap, representing a 470% premium to its $845 million in Bitcoin holdings. This implies that investors are effectively paying nearly $600,000 per Bitcoin through Metaplanet shares, in the absence of approved Bitcoin ETFs in Japan, a regulatory move that is unlikely to occur until next year.

Buying Metaplanet remains a highly speculative move, especially given its inflated NAV and the dramatic rise in its market cap from $40 million just a year ago. While the company now holds $845 million in Bitcoin, that figure is still modest compared to the scale of MicroStrategy’s holdings. Nevertheless, Japan deserves close attention, despite muted Google search trends; someone is quietly accumulating Bitcoin. Mounting evidence suggests that the dominant buyer is based in Asia, as Bitcoin consistently generates the majority of its returns during Asian trading hours.

Although we accurately anticipated the Bitcoin rally beginning April 12, it’s now prudent to lock in profits at current levels. Traders should consider reducing long exposure if Bitcoin fails to hold above $106,000.

Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.

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