Who Will Become the Next U.S. President?| Matrixport Research
This week we will examine the likely outcome of the upcoming U.S. election. While no result will be certain until the election occurs on November 5, 2024, we share our analysis and insights on the current landscape. Given the uncertainty, stock and crypto investors may adjust their portfolios in anticipation of the final decision. To keep this report concise, we will focus on our expectations for the election outcome, with a follow-up report covering the potential policy implications for Bitcoin.
The recent U.S. Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris left many voters with the impression that Trump seemed bitter and less confident. He needed a fresh message about how he would improve the lives of Americans. He had a ‘concept’ but offered nothing more. While his ideas were seen as novel in 2016, they have not evolved significantly since then.
By selecting JD Vance as his Vice Presidential candidate, Trump signaled that he remains focused on appealing to his Rust Belt electorate. However, his policies appear unchanged, centered primarily on doubling import taxes from China. While this stance was compelling in 2016, when China was viewed as a formidable competitor, the global economic landscape shifted.
A significant turning point may have been Trump’s hush payments trial in May 2024. While the trial seemed to limit Trump’s ability to campaign, it also appeared to shake his confidence and underscored the system’s backing of a Democratic nominee.
The largest Trump-themed meme coin, MAGA, surged following Trump’s NFT buyers’ event at Mar-a-Lago and the trial’s start. It rose from $4 to $17 when Trump was found guilty. This event possibly influenced the crypto market’s perception of Trump’s election chances.
Kamala Harris has not made any specific statements or policies directly addressing Bitcoin or cryptocurrencies, so any potential impact would be speculative. The Democratic Party has shown a more cautious approach to cryptocurrencies, focusing on regulatory oversight, consumer protection, anti-money laundering (AML) compliance, and addressing fraud and market manipulation concerns. Harris’s administration could prioritize tightening regulations around cryptocurrency exchanges, stablecoins, and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms.
A four-year presidential term aligns with a complete Bitcoin cycle. Given the events of the past four years, the next four years under a new U.S. President are also likely to bring unexpected developments and considerable price volatility.
Disclaimer: The above content is for informational purposes and reference only. The content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions can be precarious and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after carefully considering individual circumstances and consulting financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
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